Middle East

Hope for Change in Afghanistan

Shakib Rajaieean
August 11, 2009

Afghan President Hamid Karzai announces his manifesto for a second term on Aug. 9 in Kabul, Afghanistan. (Photo: Daniel Berehulak/ Getty Images)

On August 20, Afghanistan will launch its second presidential and provincial council elections amidst an ongoing insurgency and with a voting population frustrated with an administration accused of corruption and incompetence. Unlike the country's first election in 2004, the upcoming election is seen as the last window of hope for many Afghans for lasting peace and improvement in their living conditions.

An overwhelming majority of Afghans are expected to take part in this election, and the international commitment to supporting the new Afghan democracy is adding to the significance of this historical event. However, the Taliban's ongoing threats of disrupting the election and the fear of fraud are challenging the validity of the polls. The diverse composition of the key candidates is also further adding to the complexity of the election.

Hope for a Democratic Society

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The upcoming presidential election marks the end of a five-year term by the country's first ever democratically elected president, Hamid Karzai. That first election was the continuation of a democratic process that was established in 2001, following the collapse of the Taliban. It is part of an unprecedented practice in democracy for Afghanistan, placing the country in a unique position with regard to its neighbors in Central Asia, Iran and Pakistan, all of whom have been ruled by totalitarian regimes for years.

Thirty-eight candidates, a diverse mixture of Afghan political figures from various backgrounds, are contesting the position, including two female candidates, technocrats, jihadi figures, independent democrats, former communists, religious leaders, academics, and a former Taliban commander. They all have been given an equal chance regardless of their gender, ideology or ethnic background. It is estimated that over 15 million qualified voters have obtained voter registration cards, nearly half of the population.

Beyond an Election

The August election is of enormous significance to Afghans and Afghanistan's international partners. The second peaceful transition of power in a country that has gone through three decades of coups, invasions and domestic power struggles, the election's success will also determine the future of democratization supported by the Afghan people and their international allies. It is likely to be viewed as a symbol of Afghans' will for a peaceful change of leadership and an expression of their democratic demands from their government, which have continuously been jeopardized by the ongoing Taliban insurgency.

Demand for change dominates the 2009 campaign themes. The continuing insurgency and the war on terror have frustrated Afghans, a nation already worn by years of violence and devastation in the pre-Taliban era—dating back to the Soviet-backed communist rule in the 1980's. The re-grouping of the Taliban and the extension of their influence has crashed many Afghans' hope, leaving them with almost no confidence in the Afghan leadership's ability to end the violence. Massive corruption in President Karzai's administration has made the regime lose its legitimacy, and this loss of confidence has left the government almost powerless in extending its authority beyond Kabul. The administration's constant failures to alleviate poverty, provide better services for its citizens and improve their living conditions have motivated many Afghans to make use of their democratic rights to bring about a change of leadership.

A complex, multi-ethnic society, ethnic and religious minority groups view this election as their key chance for obtaining equality in the country's political decision-making.

A Joint Afghan and International Collaboration

Although the upcoming election is organized by Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission, a credible election that would meet international standards is not feasible without international assistance. Consensus among the country's international partners that the 2009 election will create tangible improvements in the lives of Afghan voters is the main drive behind the massive international support for this election. This support takes place in many forms, starting from deployment of troops to maintain security at polling stations, to financial assistance and monitoring of the electoral process. A considerable part of this support is mobilized and coordinated by the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, U.N.A.M.A. and the U.N.D.P./ELECT project.

Being Afghanistan's closest strategic ally, the United States has promised to extend any possible support to ensure a free and secure election countrywide. President Obama is sending an additional 17,000 troops to Afghanistan to fight the increasing Taliban insurgency and curb security threats to the election. The United States is also providing funds to support the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan. Another part of this positive intervention is technical assistance and appointment of observers who will supervise the fairness of the election.

The E.U.'s support for the ongoing democratization process in Afghanistan adds to the strength of the election. The European Commission has deployed an E.U. Election Observation Mission for the Presidential and Provincial Council Elections to observe the extent to which the election complies with international standards for elections, as well as Afghan national laws. International financial assistance is estimated to have reached more than $200 million.

Can We Afford a Fraudulent Election?

Despite the massive domestic and international attention to ensure transparency, fear of electoral fraud will still challenge the credibility of election results. Powerful tribal ties and loyalties to ethnic origins also make the election vulnerable to fraud. Because an overwhelming majority of Afghans are illiterate, a very unusual but practical balloting system has been put into place. As a result, counting the votes may take weeks, which is also likely to affect the transparency of the election and thus the people’s confidence in the final results.

The risk of a fraudulent election goes beyond the creation of an illegitimate administration and could trigger massive violence throughout Afghanistan. The eruption of violence in Iran after its recent election is likely to affect Afghanistan, a country where, in the absence of properly functioning security institutions, any violent protest can easily turn into chaos and armed confrontations. Many Afghans and international actors were shocked by comments made by the director of a campaign team of the leading candidate Dr. Abdullah, who recently warned that they would embark on a military coup should the results indicate electoral frauds in favor of their rival candidate.

The absence of adequate security continues to be the main setback for the election. Taliban insurgents have frequently threatened to disrupt the election. Thousands of Afghan and British troops as well as U.S. Marines have been involved in a serious anti-Taliban offensive in Helmand Province to provide security for Afghan voters, but concern about security in restive regions still remains. Taliban insurgency in the south and east of the country might affect the ability of the people in these hotspots to freely attend the elections. It is predicated that this would also make the supervision of the process much more difficult, leaving more chances for electoral frauds.

The recent assassination of the campaign team members of the Presidential Candidate Dr. Abdullah has proven the existence of a high risk on the polling day. A number of the presidential candidates have also been accused of human rights violations and war crimes during their membership of the communist regime in the 1980's as well as factional jihadi groups and the Taliban in the 1990's. Furthermore, President Karzai's power deals with a number of warlords to raise his chances of re-election. All this had led to concerns over whether the election will take place in a safe and credible environment.

Leading Contenders of the Presidential Race

With the exception of a few, the majority of the 38 presidential candidates are not publicly known figures. Many people believe that most of these candidates will withdraw from the contest in favor of a stronger candidate as we get closer to the polling day. Three candidates have already withdrawn from the contest in the past two weeks.

Although the 38 candidates include prominent characters including Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Mirwais Yasini, Leader of the National Congress Party Dr. Latif Pedram, former Senior Minister Dr. Hedayat Amin Arsala, former Attorney General Abdul Jabbar Sabet, former Taliban commander Mullah Abdul Salam Rocketi, and former communist Minister of Defense Shahnwaz Tanai, the chance for each and every one of these candidates to win the election is small. At this stage, four candidates have a likelihood of winning.

Hamed Karzai, the incumbent
Former Foreign Affairs Minister Dr. Abdullah Abdullah
Former Finance Minister Dr. Ashraf Ghani
M.P. and former Planning Minister Dr. Ramazan Bashardost

Hamed Karzai

Unlike in 2004 when President Karzai won the election with an astounding victory, he falls short of enough voters this round. Based on a poll conducted in June by the International Republic Institute, there is a dramatic decline in support for the president in the south and east of Afghanistan among the local traditional Pashtuns.

Karzai's popularity seems to be declining not only domestically but with international allies as well. Karzai, who was once a U.S. favorite in Afghan politics, has begun to lose his reliability in the eyes of American policy makers. His downfall started late in President George W. Bush's final term and continued with the Obama administration on many issues, in particular the massive corruption within his government.

Despite these failings, President Karzai is the strongest contester in the campaign. Part of this has to do with his his readiness to negotiate with the Taliban, including guaranteeing immunity for Mullah Omar, should he agree to negotiate. In doing so, Karzai is promising Afghans that he will bring peace to the country.

A more important factor is his splitting the oppositions' coalition by his commitment to recreating a power balance in terms of ethnicity and factions. This move was exclusively aimed at compromises with some of the leading members of the National Front, the government's largest political opposition group. His unexpected nomination of Marshal Qasim Fahim as first vice president, as well as other key opposition figures—Karim Khalili, M.P. Mohaqiq and General Dostum—created a serious split inside the National Front. Karzai’s tendency to co-opt leading non-Pashtun warlords has, however, affected his popularity among some of the radical Pashtun circles as well as human rights organizations.

Abdullah Abdullah

Abdullah is a medical doctor and a politician. He was one of the key members of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance and former minister of foreign affairs. He was advisor and a close companion of the prominent Northern Alliance military commander, Ahmad Shah Masoud, and served as the caretaker of the Foreign Ministry for the government-in-exile of Afghanistan during the Taliban domination from 1999 until the collapse of the Taliban. He was then appointed the Minister of Foreign Affairs and held the position until 2006.

In his initial steps he moved up successfully among many candidates but was highly challenged after Marshal Fahim and the Hazara alliance within the National Front shifted position by endorsing Karzai. However, his chances have noticeably increased after announcing his pledges to decentralize power in Afghanistan and introduce a parliamentary system, which would allow the provinces to elect their governors and district chiefs. Bearing in mind that the Pashtun vote is going to be divided between the two leading Pashtun candidates, Ashraf Ghani and Karzai, Dr. Abdullah is the key challenger to Karzai.

Dr. Abdullah, born from a Tajik mother and a Pashtun father has crossed the ethnic borders by gaining popularity among many voters from different ethnical backgrounds. He is considered to be a moderate jihadi politician committed to democratic values and the protection of Afghanistan's democratic achievements made since the Taliban's collapse. However, his affiliation to the existing jihadi groups, some of whom are considered to be the main obstacles to a strong central authority and a more professional administration, challenges his contest.

Ashraf Ghani

One of the most prominent Pashtun candidates standing against Hamed Karzai is Dr. Ashraf Ghani, who is a well-known Afghan scholar once tipped to be secretary general of the United Nations and the head of the World Bank. Despite his remarkable academic and professional achievements, what makes some Afghans doubt him is his previous involvement in building the foundation for an administration that he is criticizing now. Ghani served as chief adviser to President Karzai during the Interim Administration and was Afghanistan's finance minister for the duration of the transitional administration.

What distinguishes Ashraf Ghani from Karzai is his determination to stay away from jihadi circles, some of whom are despised by the Afghan people because of their involvement in the destruction of Kabul and human rights violations in the civil war in the 1990's. Ghani enjoys popularity among Pashtuns who oppose Karzai due to his failures and those who are against his tendency towards the Mujahedin leaders and commanders of factional groups. Ghani has been able to use his academic knowledge in his speeches to come up with very specific solutions to problems in Afghanistan. However, his chances to win this election are still unclear because it is believed that the votes of the Pashtuns, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, have split between him and Karzai, leaving more room for Abdullah's victory.

Ramazan Bashardost

Member of Parliament Dr. Ramazan Bashardost is a French-educated Afghan intellectual. After years of exile in Iran, Pakistan and France, Bashardost returned to Afghanistan in 2002 and worked for the Afghan Foreign Affairs Ministry. Although he is a Hazara by ethnicity, Dr. Bashardost has no affiliations with any tribal, military or political party. He is known as an independent human rights activist and a strong critic of the Afghan government.

He took office as planning minister in 2004 when his revolutionary decision to suspend nearly 1500 NGOs that he accused of corruption and being the main source of Afghanistan money drain gained him nationwide popularity. After Karzai’s rejection of his decision, his resignation made him a hero. In 2006, he was elected M.P.

Bashardost is one of the most charismatic leaders Afghanistan has ever seen and many call him Afghanistan’s Ghandi. Although he comes from an ethnic minority background, he is a well-respected figure throughout Afghanistan. He strongly opposes the presence of international troops in Afghanistan, struggles for trial of warlords and is intending to radically change Afghanistan. Although he is undoubtedly a clean and very devoted character (living and campaigning in a tent in Kabul), he lacks a strong support base because many people think his plans are too radical. He is considered to be a highly emotional individual whose arousing speeches are his only tool. However, he can still be a serious challenge for the above contesters in dividing the votes.

Summary of the Main Agenda by Leading Candidates

All the prominent presidential candidates are following a common line of issues that focus on the main demands of the Afghan people: peace and justice, reconstruction, poverty alleviation and building a transparent and accountable administration. However, in terms of their electoral campaign strengths, they are divided based on the following focal issues in their campaigns:

Hamed Karzai: negotiations with the Taliban and an end to violence

Abdullah Abdullah: decentralization of power and introducing a parliamentary system

Ashraf Ghani: massive reform of the administration and huge developmental programs

Ramazan Bashardost: elimination of power abuse and corruption

The election in August will mark one of the most crucial pages in the history of Afghanistan, and for Afghans who have desperately been waiting for a better and more peaceful life. The August election will play a decisive role in determining the emergence of either a legitimate administration that will build its capacity, eliminate the catastrophic corruption and ensure a fairer treatment of its citizens, or the continuation of the existing scenario where the country will continue to suffer from an ineffective state led by drug lords, warlords and paralyzed by a fundamentalist insurgency.

View the Worldpress Desk’s profile for Shakib Rajaieean.




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Hope for Change in Afghanistan

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